Four-Dimension Funnel
2026-11-09 · Pass criteria: defensibility (physicalConstraint ≥ 4 OR moatCapture ≥ 4) · aiContribution ≥ 30% · timeToRealize ≠ far · pricingScore hysteresis (enter ≤ 2.8, exit > 3.2) · Moat ⚠ = supplier-trap (≤ 2)
Phys carries a constraint-type tag — tech decays on a technology roadmap, geo is rented from a jurisdiction and decays exogenously (policy, permitting, new capacity), reg is licence/liability, ? means the score has no physical referent. Zero weight — no gate reads it.
Real. = expectation-vs-delivery: 90d revision of +1y consensus EPS, and beats over the last four reported quarters. Every other column is forward-looking; this one is not. Also zero weight.
Real. = expectation-vs-delivery: 90d revision of +1y consensus EPS, and beats over the last four reported quarters. Every other column is forward-looking; this one is not. Also zero weight.
● FUNNEL PASS — 33 tickers
| # | Symbol | Layer | Phys | Moat | AI% | Real. | Time | Pricing | Price | Mkt Cap | Analyst↑ | P/E note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | TTMI | L5_5 | 4 tech | 3 | 2 30% | +54.4%4/4 beat | NEAR | 1.3 | $75.33 | $8B | +146.6% | PE 9 vs 22 |
| #2 | AMKR | L5 | 4 tech | 2 ⚠ | 2 35% | -1.6%3/4 beat | MID | 1.7 | $35.00 | $9B | +88.6% | PE 13 vs 16.6 |
| #3 | CRH | L9 | 4 geo | 3 | 2 32% | -8.5%3/4 beat | MID | 1.8 | $97.73 | $65B | +24.0% | PE 16 vs 28.5 |
| #4 | NVDA | L2 | 5 tech | 5 | 4 85% | +24%4/4 beat | NEAR | 1.9 | $178.67 | $4314B | +83.0% | PE 11 vs 28.8 |
| #5 | QCOM | L2_5 | 3 | 4 | 2 45% | -5.6%3/4 beat | MID | 2.1 | $171.47 | $183B | +8.3% | PE 14 vs 18.1 |
| #6 | COHR | L8_OPT | 4 tech | 3 | 3 55% | +18.6%4/4 beat | MID | 2.1 | $225.19 | $44B | +64.0% | PE 14 vs 15.1 |
| #7 | CRDO | L2_5 | 4 tech | 3 | 4 85% | +7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.1 | $132.89 | $25B | +113.7% | PE 14 vs 18.1 |
| #8 | CIFR | L9_MINER_CONVERT | 5 geo | 3 | 2 45% | +3.2%2/3 beat | NEAR | 2.1 | $6.81 | $3B | +237.1% | PE 23 vs 58.6 |
| #9 | TER | L4 | 4 tech | 3 | 2 40% | +6.5%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.2 | $246.00 | $38B | +72.6% | PE 21 vs 20 |
| #10 | SNPS | L3 | 5 tech | 5 | 2 40% | +7.9%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.3 | $466.97 | $89B | +26.2% | PE 25 vs 30.5 |
| #11 | LRCX | L4 | 5 tech | 4 | 2 30% | +20.5%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.3 | $221.31 | $276B | +64.0% | PE 18 vs 20 |
| #12 | VRT | L8_COOL | 4 tech | 4 | 3 65% | +8.2%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.3 | $200.47 | $77B | +68.4% | PE 20 vs 20.4 |
| #13 | GOOG | L1 | 2 | 4 | 3 55% | +4.3%2/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $286.01 | $3516B | +40.8% | PE 19 vs 20 |
| #14 | AVGO | L2_5 | 4 tech | 4 | 3 55% | -0.6%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $319.48 | $1525B | +67.0% | PE 16 vs 18.1 |
| #15 | AMAT | L4 | 5 tech | 4 | 2 30% | +9.2%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $370.55 | $294B | +69.2% | PE 20 vs 20 |
| #16 | AXTI | L8_OPT_MAT | 4 tech | 2 ⚠ | 3 50% | +14.5%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $42.91 | $3B | +113.2% | PE 17 vs 22 |
| #17 | AVAV | L_DEF | 4 reg | 4 | 3 65% | -0.3%2/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $126.96 | $6B | +67.1% | PE 29 vs 26.3 |
| #18 | MRVL | L2_5 | 4 tech | 3 | 3 60% | +17.7%4/4 beat | MID | 2.5 | $154.60 | $139B | +100.6% | PE 21 vs 18.1 |
| #19 | KTOS | L_DEF | 4 reg | 4 | 4 70% | +0.4%4/4 beat | MID | 2.5 | $37.69 | $7B | +115.9% | PE 34 vs 26.3 |
| #20 | META | L0 | 2 | 4 | 3 50% | +0.1%2/4 beat | NEAR | 2.6 | $641.37 | $1640B | +32.5% | PE 18 vs 20.3 |
| #21 | TSM | L5 | 5 tech | 5 | 3 50% | +9.9%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.7 | $388.62 | $2016B | +51.0% | PE 17 vs 16.6 |
| #22 | GLW | L8_OPT | 4 tech | 4 | 2 35% | +4.7%4/4 beat | MID | 2.7 | $115.95 | $100B | +53.0% | PE 26 vs 15.1 |
| #23 | LITE | L8_OPT | 5 tech | 3 | 4 80% | +33%3/3 beat | NEAR | 2.7 | $596.16 | $54B | +80.7% | PE 15 vs 15.1 |
| #24 | CGNX | L_EMBI | 4 tech | 4 | 3 65% | +0.6%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.7 | $50.34 | $8B | +44.0% | PE 25 vs 22 |
| #25 | APLD | L9_MINER_CONVERT | 5 geo | 3 | 3 55% | NM ↓4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.7 | $16.72 | $5B | +258.5% | PE -21 vs 58.6 |
| #26 | AMD | L2 | 4 tech | 3 | 3 65% | +15.2%4/4 beat | MID | 2.8 | $508.58 | $834B | +29.5% | PE 29 vs 28.8 |
| #27 | CDNS | L3 | 5 tech | 5 | 2 40% | +3.2%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.8 | $336.53 | $92B | +22.4% | PE 34 vs 30.5 |
| #28 | ALAB | L3 | 4 tech | 3 | 4 85% | +13.6%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.8 | $216.87 | $38B | +60.1% | PE 30 vs 30.5 |
| #29 | KLAC | L4 | 5 tech | 4 | 2 35% | +8.4%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.8 | $151.38 | $197B | +45.1% | PE 21 vs 20 |
| #30 | CRCL | L_DCOMP | 3 reg | 4 | 2 30% | -6.1%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.8 | $67.56 | $17B | +52.3% | PE 42 vs 22 |
| #31 | IREN | L9_MINER_CONVERT | 4 geo | 3 | 2 35% | NM ↑3/3 beat | MID | 2.9 | $21.41 | $9B | +167.2% | PE 79 vs 58.6 |
| #32 | LIN | L3_5 | 5 geo | 4 | 2 40% | -0.8%4/4 beat | NEAR | 3.2 | $520.33 | $239B | +5.9% | PE 27 vs 21.7 |
| #33 | LINK | L_DCOMP | 4 | 4 | 2 35% | — | NEAR | 2.7 | $10.64 | $8B | — |
◌ NEAR MISS — PC ≥ 3, pricing ≤ 3.5 (watchlist candidates)
| # | Symbol | Layer | Phys | Moat | AI% | Real. | Time | Pricing | Price | Mkt Cap | Analyst↑ | P/E note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | MOD | L8_COOL | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 4 70% | -16.3%3/4 beat | NEAR | 1.4 | $106.15 | $6B | +111.4% | PE 11 vs 20.4 |
| #2 | SMCI | L7 | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 4 75% | +75.3%4/4 beat | NEAR | 1.5 | $28.60 | $19B | +51.7% | PE 4 vs 10 |
| #3 | MKSI | L3_5 | 3 | 3 | 2 35% | +12.6%4/4 beat | MID | 1.6 | $211.59 | $14B | +57.2% | PE 11 vs 21.7 |
| #4 | CMI | L12 | 3 | 3 | 2 35% | -0.8%0/4 beat | NEAR | 1.7 | $466.47 | $64B | +42.0% | PE 14 vs 22.2 |
| #5 | AA | L14 | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 1 10% | -10.2%2/4 beat | FAR | 1.7 | $41.82 | $11B | +30.5% | PE 8 vs 13 |
| #6 | ORCL | L0 | 1 | 3 | 2 35% | +1.6%4/4 beat | NEAR | 1.9 | $119.79 | $373B | +96.8% | PE 11 vs 20.3 |
| #7 | VST | L11 | 3 | 3 | 1 20% | -3.1%2/4 beat | MID | 2.0 | $133.92 | $45B | +51.3% | PE 14 vs 17.4 |
| #8 | CLS | L7 | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 4 70% | +11.4%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.1 | $222.92 | $28B | +104.6% | PE 10 vs 10 |
| #9 | CAT | L12 | 3 | 3 | 2 40% | +0.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.2 | $598.88 | $274B | +37.5% | PE 19 vs 22.2 |
| #10 | TSEM | L3_5 | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 3 50% | +10.3%3/3 beat | MID | 2.4 | $152.29 | $17B | +80.7% | PE 22 vs 21.7 |
Near-miss criteria: (physicalConstraint ≥ 3 OR moatCapture ≥ 3) AND pricingScore ≤ 3.5. Not full passes — shown for monitoring.