Four-Dimension Funnel
2026-09-17 · Pass criteria: defensibility (physicalConstraint ≥ 4 OR moatCapture ≥ 4) · aiContribution ≥ 30% · timeToRealize ≠ far · pricingScore hysteresis (enter ≤ 2.8, exit > 3.2) · Moat ⚠ = supplier-trap (≤ 2)
Phys carries a constraint-type tag — tech decays on a technology roadmap, geo is rented from a jurisdiction and decays exogenously (policy, permitting, new capacity), reg is licence/liability, ? means the score has no physical referent. Zero weight — no gate reads it.
Real. = expectation-vs-delivery: 90d revision of +1y consensus EPS, and beats over the last four reported quarters. Every other column is forward-looking; this one is not. Also zero weight.
Real. = expectation-vs-delivery: 90d revision of +1y consensus EPS, and beats over the last four reported quarters. Every other column is forward-looking; this one is not. Also zero weight.
● FUNNEL PASS — 23 tickers
| # | Symbol | Layer | Phys | Moat | AI% | Real. | Time | Pricing | Price | Mkt Cap | Analyst↑ | P/E note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | CRH | L9 | 4 geo | 3 | 2 32% | -2.7%2/4 beat | MID | 1.4 | $86.72 | $58B | +55.5% | PE 13 vs 25.6 |
| #2 | NVDA | L2 | 5 tech | 5 | 4 85% | +23.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.0 | $219.62 | $5303B | +49.6% | PE 14 vs 31.9 |
| #3 | SNPS | L3 | 5 tech | 5 | 2 40% | +1.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.0 | $380.33 | $73B | +43.5% | PE 22 vs 29.6 |
| #4 | AMKR | L5 | 4 tech | 2 ⚠ | 2 35% | +14.5%4/4 beat | MID | 2.1 | $48.47 | $12B | +57.6% | PE 17 vs 19.2 |
| #5 | TTMI | L5_5 | 4 tech | 3 | 2 30% | +27.6%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.2 | $115.07 | $12B | +86.2% | PE 17 vs 22 |
| #6 | AVGO | L2_5 | 4 tech | 4 | 3 55% | -0.2%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.3 | $348.69 | $1664B | +52.5% | PE 18 vs 23.4 |
| #7 | CDNS | L3 | 5 tech | 5 | 2 40% | +1.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $279.57 | $77B | +43.8% | PE 29 vs 29.6 |
| #8 | AMAT | L4 | 5 tech | 4 | 2 30% | +13.2%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.4 | $417.22 | $331B | +53.6% | PE 23 vs 23.7 |
| #9 | QCOM | L2_5 | 3 | 4 | 2 45% | -4.3%3/4 beat | MID | 2.5 | $189.38 | $202B | +2.5% | PE 19 vs 23.4 |
| #10 | AVAV | L_DEF | 4 reg | 4 | 3 65% | -17.5%2/5 beat | NEAR | 2.5 | $164.16 | $8B | +33.6% | PE 37 vs 29.6 |
| #11 | KTOS | L_DEF | 4 reg | 4 | 4 70% | +2.3%4/4 beat | MID | 2.5 | $47.92 | $9B | +114.4% | PE 44 vs 29.6 |
| #12 | GOOG | L1 | 2 | 4 | 3 55% | +2.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.6 | $342.05 | $4183B | +23.5% | PE 23 vs 25.9 |
| #13 | COHR | L8_OPT | 4 tech | 3 | 3 55% | +11.5%4/4 beat | MID | 2.6 | $293.07 | $57B | +41.7% | PE 21 vs 21.4 |
| #14 | CRDO | L2_5 | 4 tech | 3 | 4 85% | +11.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.6 | $165.91 | $31B | +70.3% | PE 17 vs 23.4 |
| #15 | LIN | L3_5 | 5 geo | 4 | 2 40% | -0.9%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.7 | $457.68 | $211B | +18.9% | PE 23 vs 23.8 |
| #16 | LRCX | L4 | 5 tech | 4 | 2 30% | +18.9%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.7 | $269.37 | $337B | +38.5% | PE 23 vs 23.7 |
| #17 | META | L0 | 2 | 4 | 3 50% | -3%2/4 beat | NEAR | 2.8 | $678.06 | $1727B | +11.4% | PE 19 vs 20.3 |
| #18 | KLAC | L4 | 5 tech | 4 | 2 35% | +11.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.8 | $168.87 | $221B | +38.4% | PE 25 vs 23.7 |
| #19 | TER | L4 | 4 tech | 3 | 2 40% | +23%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.9 | $355.60 | $56B | +25.6% | PE 31 vs 23.7 |
| #20 | CIFR | L9_MINER_CONVERT | 5 geo | 3 | 2 45% | -67.7%1/4 beat | NEAR | 2.9 | $17.23 | $7B | +84.5% | PE 79 vs 99.1 |
| #21 | TSM | L5 | 5 tech | 5 | 3 50% | +11.5%4/4 beat | NEAR | 3.0 | $429.95 | $2230B | +28.4% | PE 20 vs 19.2 |
| #22 | APLD | L9_MINER_CONVERT | 5 geo | 3 | 3 55% | NM ↑4/4 beat | NEAR | 3.0 | $26.61 | $8B | +171.3% | PE -105 vs 99.1 |
| #23 | LINK | L_DCOMP | 4 | 4 | 2 35% | — | NEAR | 2.4 | $11.36 | $8B | — |
◌ NEAR MISS — PC ≥ 3, pricing ≤ 3.5 (watchlist candidates)
| # | Symbol | Layer | Phys | Moat | AI% | Real. | Time | Pricing | Price | Mkt Cap | Analyst↑ | P/E note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | AA | L14 | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 1 10% | -22.6%2/4 beat | FAR | 1.6 | $47.22 | $12B | +33.4% | PE 8 vs 14.9 |
| #2 | CMI | L12 | 3 | 3 | 2 35% | +5.7%0/4 beat | NEAR | 1.8 | $525.60 | $72B | +44.0% | PE 15 vs 26.2 |
| #3 | VST | L11 | 3 | 3 | 1 20% | -5%1/4 beat | MID | 1.8 | $143.79 | $48B | +51.3% | PE 14 vs 16.8 |
| #4 | MKSI | L3_5 | 3 | 3 | 2 35% | +18.1%4/4 beat | MID | 1.9 | $239.96 | $16B | +71.2% | PE 14 vs 23.8 |
| #5 | RNDR | L_DCOMP | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 3 65% | — | NEAR | 1.9 | $1.42 | $1B | — | |
| #6 | ORCL | L0 | 1 | 3 | 2 35% | +0.7%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.1 | $149.43 | $452B | +59.9% | PE 14 vs 20.3 |
| #7 | SMCI | L7 | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 4 75% | +43.6%3/4 beat | NEAR | 2.2 | $40.63 | $27B | +4.3% | PE 8 vs 16.4 |
| #8 | MOD | L8_COOL | 3 | 2 ⚠ | 4 70% | -3%4/4 beat | NEAR | 2.2 | $186.44 | $10B | +66.4% | PE 17 vs 18.4 |
| #9 | CEG | L11 | 4 geo | 4 | 1 25% | -1.9%3/4 beat | MID | 2.3 | $263.44 | $93B | +32.2% | PE 20 vs 16.8 |
| #10 | AMZN | L0 | 1 | 3 | 2 40% | +5.1%3/4 beat | NEAR | 2.5 | $251.29 | $2710B | +30.6% | PE 24 vs 20.3 |
Near-miss criteria: (physicalConstraint ≥ 3 OR moatCapture ≥ 3) AND pricingScore ≤ 3.5. Not full passes — shown for monitoring.